http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Baseline/crops.htm

I find the USDA wheat projections confusing. They indicate increased output ("Projected 2008 production, at 2,432 million bushels, is up 365 million bushels from 2007"), but the details for June 12 state:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/WHS/WHS-06-12-2008.pdf
The National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) Crop Production reported that
winter wheat heading progress as of June 1 was behind normal due primarily to below normal
temperatures throughout the spring growing season.
NASS Crop Progress reported that as of June 8, 98 percent of the spring wheat had
emerged, slightly better than the 5-year average. Sixty-three percent of the spring wheat
crop was rated good to excellent and only 4 percent reported as poor to very poor. A year
ago at this date, 81 percent of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent and 5
percent poor to very poor.
They also note:
In Canada a cold spring delayed planting and dryness persisted in some areas,
trimming yield prospects.
Argentina’s 2008/09
production prospects were reduced 0.5 million tons to 14.5 million tons due to dry
conditions during planting.
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